| Summary: | 碩士 === 輔仁大學 === 金融研究所 === 91 === In the past few years, investors began to doubt the credibility and transparency of company’s financial reports and accounting information because some famous companies such as Enron and WorldCom were suffered from accounting scandals. And after the internet bubbles, some people try to search the reasons behind it. Evidence showed that on one hand investors were overconfident with the so-called internet companies, on the other hand people were not familiar with the valuation of intangible assets─ usually terms as intellectual capital (IC).
This paper has two main objectives, we first want to know if intellectual capital has any influence on the valuation of telecommunications companies. In other words, we want to verify whether IC will provide extra information in valuating the telecommunications companies other than the information by traditional financial indicies. Secondly, we propose a model by integrating backpropagation neural network (BPN) and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) in forecasting the P/B ratios of the telecommunications companies in Taiwan, to see whether the integrated approach will provide better forecasting capability than sole using the BPN or MARS approaches.
The empirical study shows that intellectual capital does have significant impact in forecasting P/B ratios of the telecommunications companies. It also shows that the integrating approach has better prediction accuracy.
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