| Summary: | 碩士 === 朝陽科技大學 === 休閒事業管理系碩士班 === 91 === Abstract
“Tourism Industry” has been the most economically indicative industry in the twenty first century, and it has been the main source of earning foreign money in many countries. Since 1959, the ROC government push developing the tourism, the amount of foreign tourists to visit Taiwan has been growing rapidly. Because of competition varying, social and economical territory changing, the government is facing low growing rate, industry immigrating, un-transformed economical structure, and high unemployed. We need to compete not only with other counties, but also with the time—to make ourselves as the most competitive country. The government should modify the policy, and tourism agency should modify the operative goals. Thus, “the prediction of the amount of tourists and tourism necessity” is necessary and urgent for the government and private institution.
This study uses Box-Jenkins four steps to case study; builds ARIMA models on Hong Kong, Japan, Asian, USA, and Europe; evaluates the prediction by MAPE and RMSPE. The outcome shows that the result is good, and the RMSPE is small, which represents the model is the most suitable for the prediction of the amount of foreign tourist.
According to the result of analyzing total world mainstream country tourists, the countries that foreign tourists come from, and the reasons that they visit Taiwan, “region” is the main factor that effects the foreign tourists to visit.
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