| Summary: | 碩士 === 淡江大學 === 管理科學學系 === 90 === The power demand forecast is very important in developing a power supply strategy and electric management. To plan a substation construction need lead time of about ten years, so the reliable demand forecasting is necessary for decision making.
In this study, energy demands of Taiwan are considered from four regions separate north, central, south and east. The forecast according to different use of electricity such as agriculture, manufacturing, construction, fuel gas sector, commercial, service and residence are also considered. The regional and different sector electricity demand model are proposed. And new substation construction programs region. According to the prediction of sector electricity demand we can understand the variation of sector electricity demand and structure.
By utilizing the monthly energy conscription data of different areas and sectors during 1991~2000 into autoregressive integrated moving average model（ARIMA）. The monthly energy demand during 2001~2010 can be forecasted. According to the data the planning of construction and operation of plants can be decided. From the above study following results be analysed:
In the four areas, central and east areas can achieve the balance of power demand and supply in the future, but north and south areas are not enough in power supply so the new construction of plats are required.
In the seven sectors, energy usage in agriculture and manufacturing will decrease need in the future, however the energy demand in commerce, service and residence will increase a great quantity and the industrial structure tend to commerce and service. The energy demand in constructions and fuel gas sectors will not change very much. The change in electric power demand can clearly reflect the change in Taiwan industrial structure and the forecast of long term electricity demand is useful in planning economic development of Taiwan.
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