出口不穩定與經濟成長的因果關係─東亞地區實證研究

• Main Authors: Liu Chia Yu, 劉佳雨
• Other Authors: Chen Hung Yi
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2002
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/56474218907743608260

碩士 === 東吳大學 === 國際貿易學系 === 90 === Abstract In this paper, we try to analyze the causality between export instability and economic growth for 9 east Asian countries by using the cointegration analysis and multivariate error correction model. The cointegration results indicate that export instability, investment, and export have long-run relationship with economic growth in all countries. In addition, the results of Granger causality for different level of economic development are not the same. In two-thirds of these countries, the causality results show that export instability will cause economic growth. When we incorporate the impulse responses and error variance decomposition in the analysis, we find that export instability would negatively affect economic growth in all countries, although they are not statistically significant. In summary, the variables causing the economic growth, the direction (positive or negative) affecting the economic growth, and the duration of impacts on economic growth are different for each country. This implies that using cross-section analysis to explain the individual country’s export instability on causing the economic growth is impropriated. Keywords: export instability, economic growth, Granger-causality, cointegration, vector error correction model