| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣科技大學 === 資訊管理系 === 90 === As the development of Internet companies, there is a question that the new economy has changed the rule of stock valuation. In traditional valuation models, we begin by forecasting earnings and cash flows and discount these cash flows back at an appropriate discount rate to obtain at the value of a firm or asset. This task is simpler when valuing firms with positive earnings, a long history of performance and a large number of comparable firms. But now, the valuation task is becoming more difficult for the valuation on Internet enterprise.
The main purpose of this research is to use the adjusted free cash flow model which is developing by Damodaran(2000) and the model which apply the real option theory created by Schwartz and Moon(2000) to solve the problem of valuing an Internet company. We also estimate those models’ parameters, results and then analyze the key factors for those two models.
The other purpose of this research is to enhance a better understanding of real option in essential futures and establish the corresponding Decision Support System (DSS) which valuates the real value of the Internet company by real option to promote the efficiency and accuracy of the valuation of stock. Finally, we will apply the system to valuate the stock value of Amazon.com and make the value analysis. The conclusion of this research is presented as the following:
We begin the analysis at the end of 2001 and compare the result with the current market price. Both of the results are higher than the market price at the end of 2001($10.82). This research shows that the difference between the two pricing models can be attributed to whether the factor calculation is correct or not. The factor’s calculation of the pricing model of the real option is much more difficult than that of the adjusted FCF because the first one is based on the model of the stable proportion which is not easy to reflect the real change of the cost of the company. Besides, the calculation of the cost is the most important factor of the real option’s pricing model. Because of this particular reason, it’s not surprising for the user to be cautions on the accuracy of this model. If we can correct the way of calculating the cost and choose exact factors, it will definitely show us a better result.
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