| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺北大學 === 企業管理學系 === 90 === Despite of the high profitability and growth of semiconductor industry, the DRAM industry is highly volatile and extremely risky due to several reasons. Are the spot prices of DRAM the leading index of current stock price? The main concern of this paper is to explore the statistic relationship between the change of DRAM stock prices and the change of the prices of DRAM. If we are able to predict the change of the DRAM stock price from the change of the price of DRAM, the investment risk on DRAM stock might be reduced. And DRAM companies can therefore gain a competitive advantage by utilizing the optimal equipment scale.
There are totally six chapters in this paper. The first two chapters introduce the background of DRAM industry and review the related articles. The third chapter details the methodology of this research. The forth chapter analyzes the nature and the history of the DRAM industry. The fifth chapter sets up the model for explaining the relationship between the change of DRAM stock and the change of DRAM price. This statistical equation of this model will be tested in this chapter also. The last chapter concluded this paper. Statistically this paper does not find a significant connection between the change of DRAM stock and the change of DRAM price. The fluctuation of OTC market seems a better candidate for predicting the future change of DRAM stock prices.
The main conclusion of this paper is derived from the study of the data of the four main DRAM companies, including Winbond, NanYa Technology, ProMOSand Powerchip, in Taiwan. This interesting conclusion of this paper might inspire future interest on studying different cases of the main DRAM producers outside Taiwan area.
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