| Summary: | 碩士 === 國防管理學院 === 國防決策科學研究所 === 90 === Abstract
Although the relationships between Taiwan and PRC are complex and uncertain, however the conflicts between both sides of strait are always the most concerned issues. As a matter of fact, PRC is eagerly willing to enhance its omni invasion abilities against Taiwan in order to enlarge the effect of “to accelerate reunion by force”. Repeatedly, they emphasize the principle of “rather lose tremendous of armed forces then a bit of soil” and announce that they “never exclude the possibility of solving Taiwan issue by force” constantly. While facing up to the rough situations of military conflict, the accident conflict probabilities are increased. Therefore, under the consideration of national security, how to supervise and control crises, what is the proper method to analysis them and the effectiveness of crises measurement have become concerning issues for decision making staffs. Consequently, constructing an early warning system for crises to supervise military conflict possibilities between both sides of strait by a measurable indication constantly and working out prevention measures is an effective solution for releasing the tensions between both sides of strait. Thus, that is the major reason for this research to construct an early warning indication table immediately.
Before and during the formation of any crises or conflicts, basically, some hints will be revealed. The best way to eliminate a conflict is to prevent it from formation rather than waiting for its happening. Therefore, the focal point of this research is to analysis the affection scale of decision factors to PRC when conflicts happened between both sides of strait. This research applies “The Gray System Theory” as a measurable research tool to sum up their principles as well as consideration factors for launching a military invasion. Furthermore, in this thesis, a comprehensive crisis early warning indication table is designed to analysis the military threatens from PRC. Thus, Figures out some clues while their decision factors affect crises characters so as to provide decision units with increasing tension information and searching for response options. This will be an important reference to analysis and supervise crises prediction between both sides of strait, in addition, to enhance national security and development.
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