The Optimization of a Centralized Sequential Investment Problem-The Case of the Dual-Use Technology

• Main Authors: Kun-Tsung Kuo, 郭昆崇
• Other Authors: Cheng-Chang Chang
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2002
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/77653641052288272986

碩士 === 國防管理學院 === 國防決策科學研究所 === 90 === Aiming to effectively maintain national defense research and development capacity without sacrificing civilian interests, this research suggests that transnational investment companies that focus on developing the end products or services of dual-use technologies capture on international business investment opportunities and adopt the centralized sequential investment strategy (CSIS) to be the main strategy for entering into international market. Due to the impact of global economic downturn, the planned investment regions closely interact, which in turn contributes to the result that the preceding region usually has an influence on the time required for the following region to achieve predetermined operation rewards. Based on such a premise, this research first assumes regional characteristics is the primary factor that affects the time required for investment regions to achieve the predetermined operation rewards, then considers regional characteristics effect is a linear function and has memoryless property, introduces the concepts of path effectiveness and sequential effectiveness, and finally constructs a non-recurring directed path optimization model that enables all investment regions to achieve the predetermined operation rewards within the shortest period of time in order to enter international market efficiently and effectively. This research uses complexity analysis to explain the difficulty in conventional problem solving, and proposes an algorithm procedure based on genetic algorithm complemented by appropriate method for parameter estimation. Examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the model. Since the model proposed in this research is foresight and challenging, the implementation requires coordination of subjective and objective conditions, which is discussed in separate sections. The ending part summarizes the conclusions drawn from this research and recommendations on future research direction.