Study of Taiwan’s Automotive Sales Forecast

• Main Authors: Hsueh-Ching Lu, 呂學慶
• Other Authors: Hsiao-Mei Li
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2002
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/50293274129766381302

碩士 === 國立中央大學 === 管理學院高階主管企管碩士班 === 90 === Executive Master of Business Administration, School of Management, National Central University Researcher: Dennis LeuAdvisor: Dr. Hsiao-Mei Li Topic: Study of Taiwan’s Automotive Sales Forecast While Taiwan’s GDP and foreign trades continue to grow, the island’s new vehicle sales, however, have been declining starting in 1995. In 2001, total new vehicle sales were 347,400 units, down 40% vs. historical high of 577,000 in 1994. There was variety of studies on Taiwan’s vehicle sales forecast conducted by academic institutions or automakers in the past; most of these studies were completed before mid-90’s when vehicle sales were booming. Facing the reality of low economic growth, high unemployment rate, rapid capital outflow to China, and competition under WTO open market protocol, it is worthwhile to re-establish a forecast model for Taiwan’s new vehicle sales that accommodates present macro-economic conditions. This study has three objectives: 1). Track Taiwan’s automotive industry since inception; review industry and segment sales performance in recent years, 2). Analyze regression between select economic indicators and vehicle sales; identify factors that have strong correlation with vehicle sales for developing multi-regression forecast model, and 3). Explore issues and summarize suggestions/ recommendations for Government and automakers/sellers. Through step-wise regression and inputs from interviews with major carmakers/distributors, this study chooses “Unemployment Rate” and “Growth Rate of Private Consumption” as independent factors for multi-regression forecast model. Both “Coefficient of Determination” (R2) and P Value are within acceptance level, proving adequacy of the model. According to the regression model, annual sales of Taiwan vehicle industry will range from 300,000 to 350,000 units for the next few years. Possibility of reinstating Taiwan’s new vehicle sales at 500,000 units per annum will be limited prior to restructure of employment environment as well as boost of consumer confidence. This study wraps up with suggestions to carmakers and government agency for lobbying/promulgating tax subsidies/regulations that stimulate new vehicle demand, such as acceleration of aging car replacement, reduction/exempt of automobile commodity tax, auto policy/free trade area (FTA) between Taiwan and China.