A Study on Prediction and Warning System of Mule Duck Farm Price in Taiwan

• Main Authors: En-CHih Liang, 梁恩智
• Other Authors: Wan-Tran Huang
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2002
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/69468863504123836456

碩士 === 國立中興大學 === 行銷學系 === 90 === This study imposes the process of farm market formation and the village investigation of farm market to find out simulative factors which cause farm price fluctuation for Taiwan Mule Duck. By the results of general statistic test and Box-Jenkins approach, this paper adopts four price predictive models which are: 1. Multivariate Normal Linear Regression Model; 2. Multiple Time Series and Systems of Dynamic Simultaneous Equations Model (Structural Form); 3. Markov Analysis; and 4. Grey System Prediction GM(1,1) and GM(2,1) Meanwhile, this study calculates ex-post simulation (historical simulation) and ex-post forecast farm price of Taiwan Mule Duck by the models. Base on certain and uncertain factors as well as the Economics of Information (G.J. Stigler, Nobel Price of Economics, 1982), this paper applies Management Information System (MIS) and put four price predictive models having been referred into the Decision System, sub-system, to construct farm price prediction and warning system for offering the industry of Taiwan Mule Duck Operational Control Information, Managerial Control Information, and Strategic Planning Information in the future.