| Summary: | 碩士 === 長榮管理學院 === 經營管理研究所 === 90 === Derivative financial products are international financial products which are derivatived from traditional financial products. Traditional financial products have fixed income and smaller risk relatively. The transaction place and method are simple. Like bank loan deposits,investment of government bond,focus market and stock exchange transaction and so on are used to be invested instruments generally.
Futures exchange,foreign margin transaction,fund investments and NDF transaction are all derivative financial products. Currently it just needs 10,000 US dollars to be traded in the future market,and foreign margin trading needs 20,000 US dollars.
The transaction of derivative financial products belongs to international financial exchange. It gets involved with the macroeconomic of international main monetary countries. The information of computer and the internet were not popular before 1990. It was hard to collect the information of main industrial countries on the world. After 1990,the internet was popular gradually. The political and financal information in the main industrial countries, like America , Japan, England, German,France, Canada,Italy,Taiwan,Korea,Singapore,Hong Kong, Chain, New Zealand, and some Euro alliance countries are easy to get. It makes the risk of the investment to be smaller relatively.
In recent 30 years, the foreign commerce in Taiwan developed rapidly. It leaded the macroeconomic to grow up. Adapt to the policy of financial liberalization and internationalization, the restrictions of foreign exchange are relaxed substantially. The requirement of derivative financial products expanded, and it will bring great mass fervor in investment of international financial products.
The major foreign currency exchange market trading are based on U.S. Dollars, Yen, EUR, Pound Sterling, Swiss Franc. Among those, the trading of U.S. Dollars to Yen is the favorite one by the investors. They are also the favorite one during the recent five years. Every year March and September are the months of tax declaration in Japan. Ever since 1995, during 1 to 2 months after each March and 3 months after each October, these period are the key point of Japanese Yen’s revaluation and devaluation. It is the chance for investors to enter into market. It is also the time to make money from both up and down exchange rate because the investment is available whenever revaluation or devaluation. The research is made by Time Series Model for the short terms exchange rate prediction; and by Multiple Regression Model per U.S. macroeconomics elements, industrial production index(IPI), consumer price index(CPI), trading balance amount, interest rate and quantity of currency supply(M1) to verify Japanese Yen, EUR and Pound Sterling’s middle-long terms foreign exchange rate prediction. The conclusion is made and verified that the trading of foreign exchange margin of U.S. Dollars to Japanese Yen is an workable investment of the derivative financial products.
This research,which differs from the researches in the past,
analyzes the influence of macroeconomics elements on foreign
exchange rate,for the purpose of the trading of foreign exchange
margin,expected to provide the fundamental trading of foreign
exchange margin analysis and,furthermore,to promote the
operation of the trading of foreign exchange margin.
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