| Summary: | 碩士 === 淡江大學 === 運輸管理學系 === 89 === This study intends to establish a descriptive model to analyze the human behavior under the earthquake disaster. Previous researches has indicated the gap between actual and expected evacuation was so wide either the natural disaster (e.g., floods, hurricanes and earthquakes) or technological disaster (e.g. nuclear reactor accidents). This study will try to catch the factors influence people’s decision making under different type of evacuation by using questionnaire/interview. Then develop models to predict earthquake disaster evacuation decision-making behavior.
The result indicates that the factor influence the behavior of the first-time evacuation decision-making depends on awareness of personal hazard. The best prediction factor is “perceived earthquake strength”; the factor influence the behavior of the second-time evacuation decision-making are social characteristics; the factor influence the behavior of the third-time evacuation decision-making is different by the condition of earthquake disaster. In addition, the traffic-related characteristics, such as the starting evacuation time, evacuation point and its distribution, evacuation modes, and routes also will be studied. The result indicates that people evacuate on foot to an open space or school near their house at initial stage of evacuation, and far away from the disaster area they lived by car; then move back near the house they lived before. Finally, we will introduce some issues for evacuation planning in case of future earthquake disaster.
This study estimates the number of people evacuated in different stages of evacuation, which are useful for sheltering, managing traffic, and managing social supports respectively.
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