| Summary: | 碩士 === 淡江大學 === 國際貿易學系 === 89 === The paper estimates the impact of exchange rate volatility and other related variables (income、exchange rate、seasonal factor ) on the export volume of Asian countries--- Hong Kong、Taiwan、South Korea、Singapore、Thailand、Indonesia、Malaysia、Philippines---to U.S. in pre and post Asian Financial Crisis. Be different from previous paper in this area, this paper not only use the monthly data from Jan.1990 to July 2000 but also test the stationary situation and equilibrium in the long-term. In addition, this paper use the GARCH model to measure the exchange rate volatility and adopt multivariate GARCH-M model to set up the equation of export. Finally, we estimate the effect among these variables by using the FIML to receive the correct results.
The empirical results show：there exists a equilibrium in the long-term among these variables; No matter in pre or post Asian Financial Crisis, every Asian country has significantly positive effects between the income and export volume which implies the export volume of each country strongly depends on the economical prosperity of U.S.; The estimative effects among these variables are different between pre and post Asian Financial Crisis, the main reason is due to the differences of exchange rate system, economical structure and reactive elasticity et cetera. Such results provide us with the different viewpoints in every period.
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