| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 農業工程學研究所 === 89 === This study focuses on setting up a reasonable approach for the real-time rainfall forecast as well as the consecutive water level forecast at the retardation pond adjacent to a pumping station. It includes an AR(3) model for rainfall estimation and a rainfall-runoff model for water level simulation, which is applied to flood forecasting for 20mins-ahead, 40mins-ahead and 60mins-ahead on Yu-Cheng pump station in Taipei City.
An application of the extended Kalman filter to pool level forecasting in a conceptual river basin is proposed. Urban factors are included in the rainfall-runoff model and the basin water flow is conceptually simulated with some parts: the infiltrative area, the non-infiltrative area, the sewer, the channel, a river and the retardation pond. Therefore, the conceptual rainfall-runoff model of metropolitan area is established.
Satisfactory and reasonable results simulated from some typhoon events are achieved within the pumping system and the proposed analytical algorithm in this study can be applied to the operation of flood-mitigation in Taiwan.
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