| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 會計學研究所 === 89 === The usefulness of information is always the focus of the investors and security analysts. Some trade associations usually disclose industry-wide statistics on a timely basis, which often contain forward-looking information and prospect-leading indicators. However, to some extent many prior theoretical research and the members of trade associations suspect the reliability, timeliness, and usefulness of the industry-wide information disclosed by the trade associations. Obviously, the only way to solve the problem is to make the empirical research. However, this paper plans to make the empirical research from another standpoint different from the prior research. We select the correspondent trade association based on the industrial characteristics of our target industry, and to investigate the relationship between trade association disclosures and the stock returns of our target industry.
The main purpose of this study is to explore the correlation between the monthly forward-looking information disclosures of the international trade association and the stock returns of the correspondent downstream industry in Taiwan. Our target industry is the semiconductor industry in Taiwan and the correspondent trade association is Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) in America.
The empirical results are as follows:
1. In days near the date of announcements and period they covered, the monthly worldwide book-to-bill ratios of North America semiconductor equipment manufacturers disclosed by SEMI contained no information content as to the semiconductor industry in Taiwan.
2. Besides the yearly accounting earnings, the yearly worldwide book-to-bill ratios contained incremental information content as to the semiconductor industry in Taiwan.
3. The unexpected book-to-bill ratio changes reacted in the same direction as the stock returns did, so the forward-looking information reflected the expected prospects of the semiconductor manufacturers and investors.
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