| Summary: | 碩士 === 南華大學 === 亞洲太平洋研究所 === 89 === When enterprise occurs financial crisis, it not only harms to the own business but also affect directly the related business or investors and the stockholders. Especially in such days of wide-open information, the related crisis news could cause worse results such like the broken-confident to the whole market. Therefore, to control the crisis companies well while the crisis is occurred is necessary, and to set up an early warning system to avoid the happening of crisis in usual time is quietly important too.
The research tries to use the financial variables to discuss and to predict the business crisis which is according to the companies in public that suffering to be the list for full delivery stock, stock departing from market, or temporary ceasing operation stock as the samples during 1999 to the first quarter of 2001.30crisis companies sample is collected while the total company sample is 60.By the pre 3 years financial variable before the moment year of crisis happening can create the model and count the accurate of the crisis. These variables including pay debt capability, earning capability, growth capability, management capability and financial structure which five items including 20 variables. Factors can be collected by factor-analyze.
Each year surely get different factors, and input these factors to BPN that can get some conclusions：
1.Input different factors by different years to the artificial neural network can get different result. The first year can win the accurate rate to 90﹪, the second year can get accurate rate to 83.34﹪and the third year can get just 70.00﹪accurate rate only.
2.The rate of first year is more accurate then the other two year, and the far the year is taken the less the accurate is counted.
3. Artificial neural network has the characteristic of non-linear, with this characteristic it could tolerate mistake and has self —learning capability. And is suit to use on complex circumstance.
4.The financial crisis business has no ability to pay debt, and the debt ratio is also highly, which reflect to the financial variables are cash flow ratio, debt ratio, cash reinvestment ratio and current ratio.
5. We can find that 30 companies among 12 industries of happening financial crisis in recent 3 year, the building industry had take 26.67 percentage and the next one is steel industry which take 13.33 percentage. The two industries took 40 percent of all financial crisis companies. From the catalog of the two industries, we can know the low investment of government expand in building and steel industry and it also cause the decrease of demand.
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