A Study on Biases of Decisions

• Main Authors: Wen-Chun Kuo, 郭文君
• Other Authors: Mei-Hui Chen
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2001
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/16433310178593587971

碩士 === 國防管理學院 === 國防決策科學研究所 === 89 === Decision process includes the decision analysis phase and decision judgment phase. Decision analysis is to propose nondominated alternative to decision maker for further judgment reference by specific valid assumptions, information collection, quantitative methods and logic reasoning. Decision judgment is to select an alternative from analysis results to solve the problem by considering other qualitative factors, together with preference of decision maker(s). Decision Process is complicated. Decision Making does not have to do with scientific analysis, but fully realize the subjective value judgment of decision maker(s). Hence, it is not only science but art. Under Decision making with incomplete information, we usually use heuristic to solve the problem. It results in the bias of heuristic because of the limitation of our data processing ability. The biases on decision analysis are such as setting invalid assumption, using wrong reasoning and using criteria irrelevant to objective and so on. In addition, our behaviors usually are risk-aversing and inconsistent with our attitude, and the risk aversion will make the delay of time handling. This study explores decision procedures, decision biases and their relevant factors by literature survey. Further, we clarify the difference between decision analysis and decision judgment. Finally, it studies the biases in decision process systematically and proposes suggestions respectively to avoid them.