| Summary: | 碩士 === 輔仁大學 === 應用統計學研究所 === 89 === ABSTRACT
Taiwan railway system were constructed first with 106.7 km length betweem Keelung and Hsinchu by Taiwan Governor Liu Ming Chuan at the 13th year of Guang Shue (1887 A.D.), and built sucessively through the era of Japanese occupation, going through many expansions and extensions after the restoration from Japanese, especially by the completion of the North link & South link lines each at December1979 & December 1992, Taiwan Railway Administration(TRA) had finally built the Around Island Railway Networks that could serve as one of the most perfect triumphs of engineering. Although it had only 1100 operational kilometers, Taiwan railway had played a very important role in Taiwan traffic transportation. Therefore, railway transportation not only advanced and balanced the development of economy between the east and west but also shortened the distances of cities in formal days, and it bears heavy responsibilities to many commuters in metropolis today.
However, undergoing flourish and recessive operation over one hundred years, presisting in business operating mission and cooperating government policies, TRA had first emerged deficits of 270 million NT dollars in 1978, for 22 years passed, TRA has been badly situated in the state which payments exceed receipts, so far as to the deficits grows larger and larger year after year, now facing the seriouis problems of financial predicament.
Financial planning and forecasting of TRA is the main object of this study, it builds a proper model of financial planning, and expresses the relationship of every variable by using financial planning, control, budgeting, and the numerical methods in finance, with discussing and understanding many kinds of phenomenons in the problems of characteristic of railway transpotation and its inner state of management.
The main reason of using the methods of simultaneous equations of econometry and forecasting technology of time series is because these methods are near to the form of accounting reports and the application of reality. The design of its structure is divided into three models: volume model; operating revenues & expenses model ; profit & loss model. There are 37 simultaneous equations to be built. For future useful reference in financial management and decision, we use the inferred financial reports with rationale and credibility, but the input values of related variables must be checked first on the level of rationale and credibility. Finally, I propose some suggestions to TRA according to the result of this study.
|
|---|
