| Summary: | 碩士 === 中原大學 === 企業管理研究所 === 89 === The European countries have been devoted in the integration of economy for almost 40 years, and European dollars “EURO” formally went to the stage of the world on January lst, 1999. The existence of the European dollars has not only changed the status of century which had been mostly controlled by US dollars, but also be expected to bring structural reform to the international financial market, and will change the scopes of global finance and trade. Be contrasted with the integration of European community’s economy and currency, the Asian countries have become the target to be assassinated by some speculators, because of the lack of efficient economic organizations. How to operate a good capital transfer management system, to attract international funds, to stabilize exchange rate, and to enhance the competition have become urgent needs for now. As the integration of Asian currency and the establishment of single currency unit are helpful to cope with the US and European dollars. Besides, in the opinion of regional cooperation, it may incur advantages to reduce the cost of trade and expand the economy scale, etc. To create of Asian dollars is truly efficient method to propel Asian countries to be tied closely in a sound economy system. This may cause Asian countries benefit common interests.
This study refers to a form of Euro and its central rate, taking samples of nine countries and ten currencies, including Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, Japan, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and China. The period expands from March 2, 1992 to June 30, 2000 and central rate of the Asian Currency Unit ( ACU ) is completely weighted with export, net reserves, and GNP per capita. After taking the short- term interest rate, inflation rate and stock index of nine Asian countries’, we analyzed the correlations and long-term Cointegration of ACU and other macroeconomic factors. We used the method as follows : ( 1 ) To create the Asian single currency unit as one basket currency and its central rate. ( 2 ) To use Unit Root test to check whether the Asian Currency Unit is stationary or no-stationary. ( 3 ) By means of Granger’s Causality Test to probe into the relations among ACU, short-term interest rate, inflation rate and stock markets index. ( 4 ) By using Johansen’s Co-integration method, we examined the cointegration in the long-term equilibrium for ACU and other macroeconomic factors. ( 5 ) We utilized VAR model to find out which macroeconomic factors have a robust result with respective to ACU and their converge effects.
This study expected to advocate the idea of Asian Currency Unit. We emphased with empirical evidences in order to enhance the integration system of Asian Currency Unit ( ACU ). We hoped to build up ACU to prevent financial crisis , to accelerate the growth of Asian counties’ economy and trade, and to promote the welfare of all Asian people in the future.
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