Hindsight bias: Asymmetry and Positive/Nagative framing

• Main Authors: Su-Hsien Liao, 廖蘇賢
• Other Authors: Yuh-Huev Lee
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/p6dgu6

碩士 === 中原大學 === 心理學研究所 === 89 === Hindsight bias refers to the phenomenon that people, upon knowing the outcome of an event, tend to tune the probability of event occurrence accordingly. The asymmetry of hindsight bias refers to the finding that people with event-occuring tend to have a higher hindsight bias than those with event-not-occurring. The main purposes of the present study are as follows: (1) Whether the observed hindsight bias phenomenon in the positive-framing condition can be noticed in the negative-framing condition? (2) By adopting the degree of hindsight bias instead of degree and direction of hindsight bias as a measure, we would like to re-verify whether the asymmetrical hindsight bias indeed exists. Furthermore, we would like to examine whether the asymmetrical finding can be generalized to negative-framing conditions. (3) Finally, the explanatory power of selective recall hypothesis on hindsight bias was re-examined. The present study employed a within-subjects research paradigm of hindsight bias. The experiment adopted a 2 (framing attribute: positive/negative) X 3 (statement feedback: true/false/no feedback) between-subjects factorial design. The main dependent variables were hindsight bias and the ratio of outcome-consistent thoughts. There were 380 college students participated in the study, but only 233 samples were valid. The main findings of the present study are as follows: (1) There was no main effect of framing attribute. And there was also no interaction effect between the variables of framing attribute and statement feedback. (2) Subjects with outcome knowledge, regardless of true or false feedback, indeed showed hindsight bias. However, subjects without outcome knowledge did not exhibit hindsight bias. (3) The phenomenon of asymmetrical hindsight bias was verified. And such a finding could be generalized to the negative-framing condition. (4) There were no differences in the ratios of outcome-consistent thoughts between subjects with and without statement feedback. Thus, our results further buttress Wang & Lee's (2001) finding and support the conclusion that the selective recall hypothesis cannot fully explain the phenomenon of hindsight bias.