| Summary: | 碩士 === 中原大學 === 心理學研究所 === 89 ===
Hindsight bias refers to the phenomenon that people, upon knowing the outcome of an event,
tend to tune the probability of event occurrence accordingly. The asymmetry of hindsight bias
refers to the finding that people with event-occuring tend to have a higher hindsight bias than
those with event-not-occurring. The main purposes of the present study are as follows:
(1) Whether the observed hindsight bias phenomenon in the positive-framing condition can be
noticed in the negative-framing condition? (2) By adopting the degree of hindsight bias instead
of degree and direction of hindsight bias as a measure, we would like to re-verify whether the
asymmetrical hindsight bias indeed exists. Furthermore, we would like to examine whether the
asymmetrical finding can be generalized to negative-framing conditions. (3) Finally, the
explanatory power of selective recall hypothesis on hindsight bias was re-examined.
The present study employed a within-subjects research paradigm of hindsight bias. The
experiment adopted a 2 (framing attribute: positive/negative) X 3 (statement feedback:
true/false/no feedback) between-subjects factorial design. The main dependent variables were
hindsight bias and the ratio of outcome-consistent thoughts. There were 380 college students
participated in the study, but only 233 samples were valid.
The main findings of the present study are as follows: (1) There was no main effect of framing
attribute. And there was also no interaction effect between the variables of framing attribute and
statement feedback. (2) Subjects with outcome knowledge, regardless of true or false feedback,
indeed showed hindsight bias. However, subjects without outcome knowledge did not exhibit
hindsight bias. (3) The phenomenon of asymmetrical hindsight bias was verified. And such a
finding could be generalized to the negative-framing condition. (4) There were no differences
in the ratios of outcome-consistent thoughts between subjects with and without statement
feedback. Thus, our results further buttress Wang & Lee's (2001) finding and support the
conclusion that the selective recall hypothesis cannot fully explain the phenomenon of
hindsight bias.
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