China’s Consumption Function Models and Empirical Studies

• Main Authors: CHANG, SHIH-WEI, 張世偉
• Other Authors: DR.Li, Chi-Keung
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2000
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/47240363802305775443

碩士 === 淡江大學 === 大陸研究所 === 88 === Mainland China, through economic reforming of 20 years, has turned from supply-oriented economy under traditional planning economic system to demand-oriented type economy. A series of political system innovation, economic system innovation have forced Mainland China to continuously engage in system reconstruction work; however, system change, organization innovation and concept transition certainly lead to changes of consumers’ behavior. Under traditional system, due to serious shortage of consumer goods, distribution system and stiffened labor wage system, the formation of consumption demand can be basically under control. In market economy system, diversified revenue resource, and financial asset, selection of residents’ investment opportunity and liberalization of responsive liquidity constraints have all contributed to the formation of its residents consumption demand to be more complicated, that controllability is relatively weakened. However, in approach of 1997, under impacts of such internal/external environmental factors as Asian financial storm, etc., the economy of Mainland China has entered into a new dilemma of insufficient effective demand for the first time. This new situation variation is also worth for further exploration. In fact, consumption serves as the first major variable in market economy of Mainland China after innovation and opening, such changes certainly would lead to the variation of the integral macro economic situation. Therefore, the research objective of the Paper attempts to understand the residents’ consumption variation conditions and its related influence factors, to be able to more accurately control the key points of consumption related issues of the Mainland China residents. The research approach of the Paper is to combine total quantitative analysis with structural analysis, that is, during the research process, based on quantitative research as basis, and note the combination with qualitative research at all times, to perform overall analysis of the time series data of the residents’ consumption quantitative change and its influential factors (income, saving, subsidy, etc.) since innovation and opening, and through quantitative economic approach and statistical analysis tool aid, to engage in large data analysis, to be able to correctly inspect the hypothesis, model of the Mainland China residents’ consumption function, and clarify some related issues.The research perception of the Paper shall be listed as follows: 1.Concerning the consumers’ behavior part, the consumers of Mainland China before 1978 were constrained, short-sighted, and primitive, and the behavior of this kind consumers deals with short term. After the innovation of 1978, due to keen variation of external environment, consumers’ behavior has also started to change. If with various consumption function theories about consumers’ behavior hypothesis as comparison standard, then the consumers of Mainland China after 1978 has also changed from the primitive consumers similar to Kains to the consumers of neoclassical theory, whose avant guard behavior has gradually been formed. 2.No matter if the residents’ consumption of the whole Mainland China or individual city/town or rural village, it all shows the fringe consumption inclination of the latter term (1990’s) to be higher than that of the former term (1980’s). 3.After classifying the residents’ income into regular income and temporary income for analysis, the result shows the correlation between temporary income and consumption is not stable. As to the connection between regular income and residents’ consumption stable high positive correlation has been maintained at all times. The residents’ consumption of Mainland China mainly is decided by the regular part in the income. 4.price subsidy and saving asset under ownership of residents have contributed to obvious influence to Mainland China city/tow and rural village for the 20 years of innovation and opening. Talking about city/town, subsidy and saving and its consumption are with negative correlation, while the saving deposit variable of the residents of rural village is in positive correlation with their consumption behavior