Overall Diffusion and Neural Network Product-Life-Cycle Models

碩士 === 東海大學 === 工業工程學系 === 88 === The shortening of product life cycles not only increases the difficulty of forecasting, but also of marketing decision. Since in 1969, basic diffusion model proposed by Bass, farther studies on diffusion model have been published in succession. The contents of these...

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Main Authors: Chih-Chieh Kuo, 郭晉杰
Other Authors: Ping-Teng Chang
Format: Others
Language:zh-TW
Published: 2000
Online Access:http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/70553370487733446286
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spelling ndltd-TW-088THU000300082016-01-29T04:19:16Z http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/70553370487733446286 Overall Diffusion and Neural Network Product-Life-Cycle Models 全擴散及類神經網路產品生命週期模式 Chih-Chieh Kuo 郭晉杰 碩士 東海大學 工業工程學系 88 The shortening of product life cycles not only increases the difficulty of forecasting, but also of marketing decision. Since in 1969, basic diffusion model proposed by Bass, farther studies on diffusion model have been published in succession. The contents of these studies are roughly the extensions of the Bass structure, including modeling the parameters in Bass model and considering marketing mix variables in diffusion model. This research proposes a diffusion model termed overall diffusion model. It also is an extension of the Bass model, but in the aspect of parameter forecasting which utilizes the diffusion theory for all parameters. And this research considers the relationships between the parameters. In another aspect, variables considered in this research have been incorporated into the external influence for the Bass model. It results in that the external influence model is a multiple variable function. This research also considers the sales forecasting when the policy changes and forecasting with no prior data available. This step is to prove that the diffusion model proposed is a system that bears both future forecast capability and is strategy-oriented. Except developing the diffusion model, a neural network is used to train and make sales forecast in this research. Therefore it can be used to compare the difference and excellence or shortage between the neural network and diffusion model. The development of the neural network can assist the diffusion model in providing fast results. Ping-Teng Chang 張炳騰 2000 學位論文 ; thesis 204 zh-TW
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description 碩士 === 東海大學 === 工業工程學系 === 88 === The shortening of product life cycles not only increases the difficulty of forecasting, but also of marketing decision. Since in 1969, basic diffusion model proposed by Bass, farther studies on diffusion model have been published in succession. The contents of these studies are roughly the extensions of the Bass structure, including modeling the parameters in Bass model and considering marketing mix variables in diffusion model. This research proposes a diffusion model termed overall diffusion model. It also is an extension of the Bass model, but in the aspect of parameter forecasting which utilizes the diffusion theory for all parameters. And this research considers the relationships between the parameters. In another aspect, variables considered in this research have been incorporated into the external influence for the Bass model. It results in that the external influence model is a multiple variable function. This research also considers the sales forecasting when the policy changes and forecasting with no prior data available. This step is to prove that the diffusion model proposed is a system that bears both future forecast capability and is strategy-oriented. Except developing the diffusion model, a neural network is used to train and make sales forecast in this research. Therefore it can be used to compare the difference and excellence or shortage between the neural network and diffusion model. The development of the neural network can assist the diffusion model in providing fast results.
author2 Ping-Teng Chang
author_facet Ping-Teng Chang
Chih-Chieh Kuo
郭晉杰
author Chih-Chieh Kuo
郭晉杰
spellingShingle Chih-Chieh Kuo
郭晉杰
Overall Diffusion and Neural Network Product-Life-Cycle Models
author_sort Chih-Chieh Kuo
title Overall Diffusion and Neural Network Product-Life-Cycle Models
title_short Overall Diffusion and Neural Network Product-Life-Cycle Models
title_full Overall Diffusion and Neural Network Product-Life-Cycle Models
title_fullStr Overall Diffusion and Neural Network Product-Life-Cycle Models
title_full_unstemmed Overall Diffusion and Neural Network Product-Life-Cycle Models
title_sort overall diffusion and neural network product-life-cycle models
publishDate 2000
url http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/70553370487733446286
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