Analysis of secular trend on suicide related to seasonal variation, climate and holiday

• Main Authors: Hsiu-yu Chen, 陳秀育
• Other Authors: Wei J. Chen
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2000
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/22632921321775976809

碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 流行病學研究所 === 88 === Background and Objectives: The mortality of suicide has been dramastically increasing from 1994 onwards in Taiwan. The change of ecological factors and social activity may not only lead to increased mortality but alter seasonal pattern. The aims of this study are (1) to assess whether seasonal pattern is altered after 1994 and also modified by age, sex and suicide method; (2) to evaluate the impact of holiday on suicide; and (3) to elucidate the relationship of suicide to climate such as temperature and precipitation. Methods: The mortality data from 1985 to 1998 was collected. The corresponding monthly information on temperature and precipitation was accrued from Central Weather Bureau. Important holidays in the ways of lunar and solar systems were also defined General Box-Jenkins model and Generalized Autoregressive Model (GAM) are proposed to achieve the above purposes. Results: The mortality of suicide has been increasing since 1994, particularly in old males with violent method. Seasonal pattern has been demonstrated to cluster between April and July. In addition, a small spike is found in October. Before 1993, one cycle per year is observed for both sex. One cycle per year is found for male but there are three cycles per year for females with aged 65 years or above between 1994 and 1998. Both suicide methods, violent and non-violent, show the property of seasonal pattern. Positive significant association between suicide and climate are found. Only two holidays, New Year and Chinese New Year’ Eve, show a significant protective effect on suicide. Conclusion: The result of this study suggests that the change of ecological factors and social correlates may alter seasonal pattern and increase the burden of suicide.