| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 土木工程學研究所 === 88 === Abstract
The study aims at building up a set of research methodology to estimate the reliability of regional water supply system when ENSO occurs. This research methodology is also applied on Tan-Shui river basin so as to highlight practicability of this methodology.
The study firstly introduces the definition and occurrence of ENSO. Furthermore, the cause of building research methodology is illustrated: (1) 30 sets of Nino3.4 Index of defining ENSO are generated by Thomas and Fiering seasonal model. (2) Two regression equations, one is between Nino3.4 Index and temperature, the other is between Nino3.4 Index and precipitation, are separately established. (3) Runoff is simulated by inputting temperature and precipitation into the water balance model. (4) Water supply of each demand note is gained by optimization model. (5) Shortage index (MSI) is evaluated by water supply and demand. And (6) the reliability of water supply system is estimated by MSI
The study applies the methodology on Hsintien Stream Region and Tahan Stream Region to estimate the reliability of satisfying each target demand in the research area under current (Year 1996) water demand and water resource facilities. Before applying the methodology, both model validation and parameter calibration are done in order to obtain the parameters of each model.
The methodology of study is applied to obtain following conclusions: (1) the trend of correlation between Nino3.4 Index and temperature is similar with it between Nino3.4 Index and precipitation. They are both weak correlated in the same month. However, they are stronger correlated in one month lag and the strongest in two months lag. (2) The study discovers that ENSO affects rainfall in northern and middle Taiwan more obvious than in other sections, but litter different in temperature between regions. (3) The water shortage condition is more serious in Tahan Stream Region than Hsintien Stream Region under current (Year 1996) water demand and water resource facilities. (4) In Tahan stream region, The reliability of MSI, which is 0.1, is 50.35%; which is 0.5 is 78.35%; and which is 1 is 95.58% under current (Year 1996) water demand and water resource facilities. (5) Hsintien Stream Region is not shortage in water demand. (6) In whole region, the reliability of MSI, which is 0.1, is 66.35%; which is 0.2 is 82.47%; and which is greater than 0.3 is 93.44% under current (Year 1996) water demand and water resource facilities.
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