| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立交通大學 === 經營管理研究所 === 88 === According to the importance of the semiconductor industry in Taiwan''s manufacturing industry, the industry classification will influence the financial forecast efficiency.
In this study we want to empirically verify the financial forecast model for the "semiconductor industry" with "wafer foundry fab". We used real data and parameters to test the model. The contribution of this research is to improve the financial forecast efficiency of the wafer foundry business, and it will be helpful in setting up a forecast goal. The forecast result can highlight the problem and key successful factors of operation. The company can use the key factors to manage and to improve the operation performance. In this study, we found:
1. Capital expenditure forecast: It should not only forecast the next year, but also should make long term planning to reconcile the demand and supply. And it should adjust the capacity expansion timing and advanced equipment.
2. Sales forecast: The forecaster should trace the industry trend (outside evaluation), therefore can submit the reasonable result accordingly.
3. For the wafer foundry business, they should ascertain the internal evaluation and performance control, in order to achieve high profitability. The major control parameters are (1) maximizing the utilization (2) optimizing the product mix (3) improving fab yield (4) strictly controlling cost (expenses and headcount).
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