| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立成功大學 === 企業管理學系 === 88 === In viewing of corporate failures, a change in economic conditions, in addition to financial status of corporations, is also one of the major causes. The pre-warning model of corporate failure should be constructed under the consideration of economic conditions. After the sample is divided into recession and non-recession periods, this paper finds that the predictability of pre-warning models will substantially increase. The purposes of this paper are: (1) to build up the pre-warning models for the failure of corporations listed in TSE under different economic conditions; (2) to compare the prediction accuracy of the pre-warning models for corporate failure under different economic conditions; and (3) to compare the differences in financial attributes for failure and non-failure corporations, and to identify the significant prediction variables. Results of this paper indicate that: (1) The repayment ability for the failure corporations is relatively low and liquidity which is reflected in current ratio, quick ratio, and ratio of operating asset to total asset is also rather low; (2) As to the accuracy of prediction, a distinction between periods of business recession and prosperity is helpful for increasing the accuracy of predicting corporate failures. Therefore, the consideration of economic conditions is helpful for the construction of pre-warning system of corporate failures.
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