| Summary: | 碩士 === 中原大學 === 企業管理學系 === 88 === Abstract
This research is based on rapid growth of electronic industry (high cash flow) and recedes, mature state of non-electronic industry(low cash flow)in Taiwan, and we compared different industries with different valuation model. The samples contained 61 listed electronic firms before 1997 and 61 non-electronic firms, based on their asset size , which add up to 122 sample firms, and we use FCFF, FCFE, EVA, P/E, P/B, P/S and OPM to evaluate the samples true value between 1997 to 1999, and state the differences of these results.
We can conclude this research as the following results:
1.DCF(FCFF,FCFE and EVA)
(1)DCF conclude that electronic industry are high profit, high risk and high
growth, and non-electronic industry are low profit, low risk and low
growth.
(2)FCFF, FCFE and EVA have no statistically significant at the 5% level
between electronic and non-electronic industries.
2.Relative valuation (P/E, P/B, P/S)
(1)P/E has no statistically significant at the 5% level between electronic
and non- electronic industries.
(2)P/B and P/S have statistically significant at the 1% level between
electronic and non- electronic industries.
3.Option Pricing model has no statistically significant at the 5% level
between electronic and non-electronic industries.
4. If we take the average of forecasted industry difference value as our bench mark, we can find out that FCFF is more precise in evaluation of electronic sectors, EVA is the second precise, and P/E the third, however these valuation model''s pricing are all lower than the real share price. If we take the variables of forecasted industry difference value as our stable value, than we find out that P/S is more stable than EVA and FCFF. FCFE, OPM and P/BV are not suitable in evaluation of electronic industry.
5.If we take the average of forecasted industry difference value as our bench mark, we find at that P/S is more precise in evaluation of non- electronic sectors, EVA the second, and OPM the 3rd. If we take the variables of forecasted industry difference value, than we find out that P/SALE is more stable, OPM the second, and EVA the 3rd. FCFE, FCFF, and P/E are not suitable in evaluation of non-electronic industry.
6.FCFE are not suitable in both industrys.
7.High Quantitative evaluation does not guarantee better result. This research shows the result varies by different situation.
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