The Study of Correlation between the Inforcement of Wearing Helmets and Motorcycle Theft in Taiwan.

• Main Author: 宋睿祺
• Other Authors: 許春金
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2000
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/k56cqn

碩士 === 中央警察大學 === 犯罪防治研究所 === 88 === Motorcycle theft is the most common criminal case in Taiwan. In the past five years, 220,000 motorcycles were stolen each year. Studies from other countries indicate that the enforcement of wearing helmets can lower the motorcycle theft rate. The purpose of this study is to discuss the correlation between wearing helmets and motorcycle theft, and use five types of statistical analyses and interviews to explain that enforcement of wearing helmets is one of the reasons for the lowering of the motorcycle theft rate. This study explains the effectiveness of rational choice theory, routine activity theory to prevent crime. Motorcycle thieves tend to give up stealing when the situation is not suitable for stealing. Pragmatic studies from other countries such as W. Germany, Holland and India (Madras) indicate that the rate of motorcycle theft lowered after the enforcement of wearing helmets. Statistical analysis in this study adopts the One Simple t-Test, the One-Way ANOVA, the Pearson Correlation Coefficients, the ARIMA Intervention Model and the ARIMA Transfer Function Model to evaluate the correlation between the crackdown rate of not wearing helmets and motorcycle theft. The results are as follows: 1.There was a major difference of motorcycle thefts after the enforcement of wearing helmets since June 1, 1997 in Taiwan. 2.City and counties with a higher crackdown rate, also have a bigger reduction of thefts. 3.There is a negative correlation between the crackdown rate of not wearing helmets and motorcycle thefts. 4.The enforcement of wearing helmets has a major influence on the number of of motorcycle thefts in Taiwan. 5.The time series of the crackdown rate of not wearing helmets has a major influence on the time series of the motorcycle theft rate. In this study, ten juvenile motorcycle thieves were interviewed in the correction house. The results indicated that the juvenile motorcycle thieves would consider the risk of not wearing helmets. Also, the crackdown of not wearing helmets make the juveniles think over the inconvenience to steal or to prepare a helmet. To sum up the above findings, the crackdown of not wearing helmets is one of the reasons for the lowering of motorcycle theft. Studies also found that the lowering of motorcycle theft rate by the crackdown of not wearing helmets does not increase other theft cases. The lowering of motorcycle theft also lowers the robbery and stolen goods rate. Simple motorcycle locks are another reason of high motorcycle theft rate. This study has suggestions for the prevention of motorcycle theft as follows: 1.Spontaneity is the best way to prevent crime, lowering the motorcycle theft rate while cracking down on not wearing helmets. 2.Locks are still the first front line to prevent motorcycle theft. New or old motorcycles should both put on an extra lock after locking the front wheel. 3. The Authorities should lead the way to design better motorcycle locks to better prevent motorcycle theft. Keywords：motorcycle theft, motorcycle helmet, situational crime prevention, ARIMA