| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 農藝學研究所 === 87 === It is not easy to quantify the process of seed germination, or to describe the germination behavior. Some well-known distribution were used to detect the effect of temperature on germination. During some intervals of germination it seems that the germination rate and temperature have a linear relationship. Therefore, it is possible to obtain the cardinal temperatures ( the lowest ,the highest and the optimum temperature ) of seed germination by using regression procedure. However, the procedure of estimation of parameters is long and tedious. This paper presents an accelerated failure time model which can simplify the estimation of parameters and also can obtain the cardinal temperatures of seed germination.
The experimental Monochoria seed germination data is used here. Weibull function、logistic function and the new approach of accelerated failure time model are used to analyze the temperature effect on the Monochoria seed germination. Results show that the estimated cardinal temperatures of the
three approach are as follows. For Weibull function and Logistic function, the estimated lowest seed germination temperature are about 12℃ respectively. The ranges of the highest germination temperature are wider for both Weibull function 42-50℃ and logistic function 53-77℃. The estimated highest germination temperature is not reasonable in biological sense. The estimated optimum germination temperature is about 31℃. The results of cardinal temperatures estimated by using the accelerated failure time model are as follows. Assume the germination time in different distribution at the
different percentage, the following results are obtained. The estimated lowest seed germination temperature is about 16℃. The estimated highest seed germination temperature is about 37℃. The estimated optimum seed germination temperature is about 30℃. The estimated cardinal temperatures are close to the experimental value 16- 38℃. Therefore, the accelerated failure time model is suggested for estimating the seed cardinal temperatures.
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