| Summary: | 碩士 === 國防管理學院 === 資源管理研究所 === 87 === ABSTRACT
The correction of National Defence Manangement Decision (NDMD) must build in good planning procedure.This study try to apply the idea of systematic planning and the methods of quantitative analyses, time series forecasting model and the controlling flow chart to build a sensitive model to control the Defense Budget. The purpose is using the forecasting system to allocate the defence resources properly.Results demostrated that,
Firstly, defence budget forecasting aspect：
Using the Box-Jenkins ARIMA Model Time Series Approach to predict defense budget accurately.The ARIMA (1,1,1) Model can precisely predict DB with 95.5% of accuracy.The ARIMA transfer function rsb(2,2,1) model have over 99% of accuracy. Therefore,ARIMA transfer function model constructed in this study proved to be an efficient and parsimonious tool in DB forecasting.
Secondly,financial decision support system aspect：
The purpose of this study is to develop a computerized defense financial planning model.This model, designed to assist the financial planner and to be charged with a year defence budget and military investment program, would help them make more approvpriate strategic decisions regarding the allocation of limited resouces.This model was written in Excel 97 Visual Basic for Application System (VBA).It''s easy for user to communicate with professionals and decision makers. Meanwhile, decision makers are able to evaluate the outcome of alternative courses of action by simulating future change.
Keyword︰Financial Planning、Defense Budget、Time Series、 Decision Support System
|
|---|
