| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立中央大學 === 土木工程研究所 === 87 === This study emphasizes on the joint policy for a multiple reservoir system in parallel. The fist part of this research focuses on streamflow generation, the second part on the application of the stochastic dynamic programming to obtain balancing curves. Most of the streamflow generation models were developed by taking only a specific streamflow data into consideration. However, with the trend of overall water resource systems management, it becomes unacceptable to treat each stream in the system independently. This is because the variation of hydrological factors, such as terrain, climate, and soil types, are limited in a nearly area. That is, there must be a certain correlation between the streamflows. With this in mind, a multisite streamflow generation model is developed in this study. Also, in the process of streamflow generation, this research develops an analytic model with meteorological characteristics instead of a harmonic synthetic model. In this way, we can generate streamflow carrying physical meaning.
The streamflow generated from the multisite streamflow model is summerized into a streamflow transition probability matrix for later use. A stochastic dynamic programming aims to obtain balancing curves in a ten-day period. The release from each reservoir to the joint demand is defined as a function of the individual storage and the time of the year together with balancing curves indicating the ideal distribution of storage levels among the reservoirs. Two types of joint operation, a full joint operation and a partial one are studied. Moreover, different operation methods are simulated. The balancing curves are compared with the equal proportion storage curves. The simulation of partial joint operation and that of full joint operation are then conducted. A partial joint operation means only certain demands can be made from each reservoir. The Tanshuei River Watershed, consisting of Peishih River, Nanshih River, and Tahan River, is chosen as a case study. Using the demand in year 2000 as the target, the case study, which discarding the current rule curve, is analyzed based on one hundred ten-year runs. The result indicates that compared with the partial joint one, the full joint operation can reduce the amount of demand shortage by 90 percent or so.
|
|---|
