Application of Technology Forecasting Methodologies: A Case Study of the Development Trend of Wireless Communications Technologies

• Main Authors: Jim-Min Lin, 林治民
• Other Authors: Benjamin Yuan
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 1998
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/28506798093946360016

碩士 === 國立交通大學 === 科技管理所 === 87 === This research intends to identify the important factors affecting technology forecasting and to clarify the limitations to the inter-relationships among different forecasting methods. Criteria for selection of appropriate forecasting methods are based three factors, namely, the effectiveness of available data, the uncertainties of the technology and the development stages of the technology. This thesis applies the technology forecasting methods to predict the development trend of the wireless communications technologies. Major findings include the following. After reviewing the three dimensions of the twelve forecasting methods, the “growth curve” method is chosen to build the empirical model of technology forecasting to predict the timing at which the analog wireless communications technologies will be replaced by the digital communications technologies. This model is also used to estimate the timing at which the TDMA technology is replaced by the CDMA technology. An analysis on the patents of TDMA/CDMA technologies is also conducted.