Study on Regional Flow Duration Curve and its Uncertaninty

• Main Authors: Shu-yi Wu, 吳書易
• Other Authors: Keh-Chia Yeh
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 1999
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/29409486139441483157

碩士 === 國立交通大學 === 土木工程系 === 87 === Although it has simple theoretical basis, the flow duration curve (FDC) is important in many practical engineering applications. Because of the inherent natural randomness of stream flows, traditional end-of-period FDCs show variation when the selected record lengths are different. It is used to produce a multi-year curve in tradition; however, it is to product annual flow duration curve in this work. In other words, the n-yr-FDC curve is substituted by n annual FDC curves to discuss the statistical characteristics and to divide ally homegeneous hydrologic areas by the cluster analysis. In hydrologic engineering practice, one usually faces the problem of lacking flow discharge data or short record period. Hence, the FDC at the location of interest cannot be derived. Under such circumstances, the regional hydrologic analysis then becomes the commonly adopted methodology. In general, regression analysis is the most common used approach in the regional analysis. In this study, the regional FDCs in each homegenous hydrologic area are derived with their characteristics spcified by the averaged dimensionless form of the FDCs. Furthermone, the ARIMA(Autoregressive Integated Moving Average) model is adopted to estimate future FDCs of the Ho-Long Creek basin.