| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立暨南國際大學 === 經濟學系 === 87 === The main goal of this thesis is to utilize the P/E ratio approach to forecast future stock price to see whether this approach is effective and feasible, and to test, empirically, if it is actually reasonable to forecast future stock price taking the number 20 as the logical P/E ratio multiple. Furthermore, we attempt to propose a new method (the synthetic method) in order to choose a logical P/E ratio, to examine whether its capacity in forecasting is explicit. According to the empirical results, the following conclusions are acquired: first, the P/E ratio approach is indeed effective in forecasting future stock price. Secondly, take the number 20 as the logical P/E ratio multiple does have its referential value. And thirdly, the synthetic method is the best forecasting method in this research.
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