The Impact of Transportation Investments on Regional Economics－A Transportation Application of Multi-Regional Input-Output Model

• Main Authors: DAR-YING,JAN, 詹達穎
• Other Authors: 姜渝生
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 1999
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/80905493125163399107

博士 === 國立成功大學 === 交通管理學系 === 87 === There has been a high economic growth rate in Taiwan during the past fifty years.The industrial structure has changed from agriculture to manufacturing. From the Ten Construction in the 1960’s to the Country Construction Six Year Plan in the 1990’s, the government has devoted to transportation projects. Their goal is to promote competition and economic growth. In order to examine the industrial structure in Taiwan, that include input structure, product distribution, interregional commodity flow, and industrial interdependence, the government has built the regional input-output table . Unfortunately, there has been no regional input-output table published since 1981. This study is an attempt to investigate the impact of transportation investments on regional economics. The impact and multiplier analysis was performed through multiregional input-output model. First, we need to estimate the input coefficients and the trade coefficients to update the multiregional input-output table of 1994. We then use the impact and multiplier analysis to forecast the change of output, income, and employment in each region of Taiwan. We use the RAS method to update the regional input coefficients and calibrate the LSG model and the multinomial logit model to estimate the trade coefficients. We then update the multiregional input-output table and forecast the impact of transportation investments on regional economics. Finally, we use the least upper bound, interregional feedback index, and regional feedback loops analysis to investigate the interregional transactions interdependence. The major findings include: (1)In the Northern region, transportation investments from 1994 to 2011 have 36.80% of total transportation investments and have 40.41% of total output effects. The key effected industries would be Construction, Electrical Machinery and Apparatus, Electronic Products, Service, Machinery Equipment, Wholesale and Retail Trade, Basic Metal, Mining and Quarrying, and Rubber Products.(2)The impact and spread effects of the transportation investments in each region have been centralized in the Northern region. The Northern region is the core of the economic development in Taiwan. The Eastern region has the high multipliers because of the low investments and the high effects from other regions.(3)The construction of the second freeway, the east-west expressway, and the west coast expressway will be completed by 2013. The interregional transactions will saved 20-26.4% of travel time.There has been produced 5.93% of the gross domestic product by saving transportation costs.(4)The interdependence of the interregional transactions of 1976 was higher than that of 1981, and 1994 was higher than that of 1976. (5)The results of regional feedback loops show that the interregional transactions were 19.67% of all transactions in 1976, 20.97% in 1981, and 23.66% in 1994. The Northern region is the core of the interregional transactions. The patterns of interaction become complex although there are simple bi-lateral flows in evidence.