Election Forecasting: the Construction and Its Applications of a Logistic Model of Conuty Magistrate Elections in Taiwan

• Main Authors: Fan, Ling-Jia, 范凌嘉
• Other Authors: Hung, Yung-Tai
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 1999
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/90707259286429440383

碩士 === 國立政治大學 === 政治學系 === 87 === This research is focused on Taiwanese county magistrates election in 1997, and based on the aggregate and individual data to design a forecasting model, named "Joined Idiosyncrasies Adjusted Model" (JIA Model). This model is operated by two stages. First, I compute a basic model, which reflects some general factors in every county. Second, I design extended models to adjust the output of basic models. Those extended models can precisely show the situation of every single county. In this model, I try to use logistic regression to compute the candidate''s votes, and present the final forecast output in probability. This model made the county magistrates election more predictable, and the model errors are less than the sampling errors.