壽險解約率與總體經濟關係之研究

• Main Author: 詹淑卿
• Other Authors: 張士傑
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 1998
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/31877533712622965737

碩士 === 國立政治大學 === 風險管理與保險學系 === 86 === Lapse rate plays a crucial role in monitoring the effectiveness of management for life insurers. Its changing phoneme not only characterizes the stability of the insurer''s financial strength but also provides a benchmark in valuing the development and quality of business. There are many factors influencing the lapse rate of the life insurance policies. In this study, macroeconomics index, economic growth rate, per capita income, rate of return on alternative, unemployment rate and inflation rate are selected as independent variables to measure their importance. Seven Taiwan domestic life insurers between 1983 and 1996 are sampled and studied. The panel data approach combining cross sectional and longitudinal observations are adopted. The lapse rate of the insured amount and the insured case are selected in variable intercept regression model as dependent variable to summarize the mutual relationship with the chosen independent variables. F-tests, Lagrangian-multiplier test and Hausman test are performed in making the conclusion. Based on our study, several results have been found and summarized as following. (1) Economic growth rate and per capita income are found to be significant in influencing both the lapse rates of insured amount and insurance case. (2) Unemployment rate is also significant in influencing the lapse rate of insurance case. (3) There is no significant effect from the rate of return on alternative and inflation rate. This study has emphasized on employing the methodology of adopting the panel data to explore the relationship between the lapse rate and the selected macroeconomics factors. Based on our approach, the life insurers could monitor its renewal life insurance policies and associated cash flows when the impacts from the macroeconomic factors present.