| Summary: | 碩士 === 淡江大學 === 水資源及環境工程學系 === 85 === The sustainable usage of water resource is to avoid the amount of water usage exceeds its supply limits, even the population keeps growing and the environment is being developed. Under the latent crisis of increasing difficulties in acquiring water resource, this research uses system dynamic to develop a sustainable water resource model and the system theory. The water resource system of Taipei County is applied as a model for approving the theory. By using the system dynamic simulation to study both the future demands and long-term tendency of water resource in four areas, which are population, service business, commercial and industrial, and water supply areas. In order to reach the goals of sustainable growth and stability, several inappropriate factors which caused the overshoot in the system model are found in this study. In the mean time, these factors have been adjusted and modified step by step to reach the goals. The goals are as follows:
1.From system growth and decline aspects, the study discusses these interactions of economic activity and water supply in Taipei County and builds a water resource system model for this area.
2.Using balance as the basis, the study builds the casual loops between those subsystems.
3.Finding the factors cause growth and decline in the system.
4.Finding how to avoid overshoot and decline in the system by simulating the system growing process.
5.Finding the system growing limits and the needed time for sustainable growth.
The study uses Dynamo as the system dynamic tool. The result shows the system will go beyond its sustainable limits, also it is an increasing decline. The study revises those factors and policies against the sustainable growth in this system, also performs continuing technical analysis and simulation until the growth behavior of the subsystems has been improved. In the final process, the result shows not only the sustainable growth in the system but also the time of water resource usage has been prolonged.
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