A Study On The Twin Deficits Issue In the 1980s

• Main Authors: Hsu, William, 許偉麟
• Other Authors: David Kleykamp
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 1997
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/17208514432087537401

碩士 === 淡江大學 === 美國研究所 === 85 === 1980年代經濟學家的看法認為聯邦預算赤字的持續存在以及擴張，乃 是造成美國對外貿易逆差的主因。由於聯邦擴張性財政政策促使國內利率 水準上揚，因而使得美元匯價大舉上揚，美元升值的結果導致出口貿易迅 速下跌，對外的貿易逆差因而產生。1980年代傳統看法的論點在孟岱爾- 費利明的IS-LM模式解釋下，可以得到合理的答案，然而卻忽略了貨幣政 策對於國內利率以及美元匯價的影響。1980年代初期的經濟衰退就是緊縮 性貨幣政策影響利率以及美元匯價最有力的證據，其影響不容忽視。預算 赤字本質上並非就會導致對外貿易收支的逆差，傳統看法的論點似乎未著 重於美國國內儲蓄與投資間的差距，而此差距正是預算赤字導致貿易赤字 的先決條件。1980年代外國的經濟政策也是助長美國貿易赤字的形成與擴 大，諸如：日本、台灣與南韓、以及債務危機發生後的拉丁美洲國家所實 施的經濟政策。預算赤字與貿易赤字對於美國未來經濟長期成長的影響為 何，美國預算赤字的持續存在是否會造成硬著陸危機的出現，以及柯林頓 政府的策略性貿易政策，其成效又將如何，都是本篇論文所要深入探討的 主題所在。 Some economists in the 1980s thought that the main cause of the trade deficitwas the federal budget deficit, which was growing enormously and continuously.Due to the expanding fiscal policy adopted by the federal government pushed upthe interest rates, therefore, contributing to the appreciation of U.S. international exchange rate, and thus creating an unfavorable environment for the U.S. exporters, then the unprecedented trade deficit ensued. It israther reasonable but not correct when the conventional wisdom is tested underthe Mundell-Fleming IS-LM model, for the lack of the monetary policy impact upon the interest rate and exchange rate.The recession in the early 1980s was even the most prominent evidence. The conventional wisdom didn't seem to emphasize the saving and investment gap, which was the main concern of the twin deficit linkage,for the budget deficit doesn't per se cause the trade deficit.Foreign economic policies also played important roles in contributing to theexistence and growth of the U.S. trade deficit, for example: Japan, Taiwan and South Korea, as well as the Latin American countries after the Debt Crisis. Economists still couldn't come to a conclusion about the impact of the twindeficits upon the long term economic growth of the U.S. This thesis also focuses on exploring into the possibility whether the U.S. would suffer the"Hard Landing" crisis,the effectiveness of the "Strategic Trade Policy" adoptedby the Clinton Administration that was eager to solve the trade deficit and improve the competition of the U.S. in the 1990s.