| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 財務金融學系 === 85 === The purpose of this thesis is to provide a dynamic financial
predictingmodel that is constructed from a statistical "CUSUM"
model, by which it issignificantly able to predict the financial
distress in advance. The stock required full delivery firms
are selected as failed firms in comparison with healthy firms of
the same industry. We adapt five financialratios as independent
variables and put them into CUSUM model to test the financial
performance. The major results are as follows:1.For the ratios
such as FA/TA, NWC/TA, EPS/P, OI/TA if the failed firms are
lower than those of healthy firms except INV/SALE ratio, this
means that in the long run the failed firms will encounter
financial distress due to the bad inventory management.2.The
CUSUM model is well to predict the financial distress before six
sea- sons that is more accurate than a better prediction and
results in the Dis- criminate analysis.
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