| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 財務金融學系 === 85 === The government will enforce a new social security policy --
Taiwan Pension Plan in the coming years. In order to guarantee
the success ofthis plan, we focus on its financial soundness.
Due to the deteriorating government deficit, a major requirement
to the newly established social security policy is self-
sufficiency. The Taiwan Pension Plan is supposed to be built an
independent fund tocontrol all the cash inflow and outflow. The
cash inflow of the fund consists of contribution and investment
return; the cash outflow is benefit. The investment return
should link to the benefit to make the accounts balanced.
Considering this point of view, we adopt 40 years as projection
period, and then calculate the floor of the real investment
return. From this research, the conclusions I found are as
follows:1.One of the key factors that influence the cost of the
Pension Plan is the growing number of beneficiaries. The cost
will keep rising from year 2011 to year 2051.2.The
accumulation period is designed as ten years, which is proved to
be too short.3.Based on the approach we adopted, the real
investment return to the fund is positively related to
expected inflation rate. This result means that once Taiwan
suffers from high inflation, the required rate of investment
return will be high, thus maintaining the operation of Pension
plan will become more difficult.4.According to the required
rate of investment return, we can determine the optimal
portfolio of fund assets. The empirical result suggests that
about 20% of the fund should be invested in the risky asset,
and the rest in the riskless asset.
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