A study of reliability assessment for gas transmission pipeline system

• Main Authors: Wu, sung quwn, 吳松錕
• Other Authors: Chao. Yu-Shing
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 1997
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/09654378085228492112

碩士 === 國立海洋大學 === 機械與輪機工程學系 === 85 === Gas transmission pipeline system was designed very conservativelydue to the server losses of lives and properties after fracture failure.In order to evaluate the conservatism of safety margins of a pipeline system, the well-developed modern engineering reliability analyses wereused instead of traditional statistics methodology.The objective of thisstudy was to have a quantitative reliability analysis of transmission pipeline system by using probabilistic fracture mechanics approachwhere ductile pipe fracture mechanics models were developed. Two probabilistic fracture mechanics models for(1)leak and (2)leakand break failures had been developed respectively; the reliability ofgas transmission pipeline system was estimated by Monte Carlo Simulationmethod First-Order-Second-Moment method. The results showed that both MCS method and FOSM method couldbe applied satisfactorily ,and also showed the inappropriateness by a traditional statistic's analysis for a scarce data.Sensitivity analyses were processed to show that the major uncertaintyresided on defect size,and the most influential failure mode on reliabilitywas leak that indicated the key strategy on failure prevention.To the conclusion,a raise of design factor of stress ratio to 0.6 will still maintain the pipe integrity in a conservative condition.