Reliability Analysis in Regional Water Resource Carrying Capacity : A Case for Chung-Kuang Chi Basin

• Main Authors: Yang, Yih-Chia, 楊益嘉
• Other Authors: Chao-Shiuan Liaw
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 1997
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/32437936431842347822

碩士 === 國立海洋大學 === 河海工程學系 === 85 === In recent years, due to rapidly industrial and commercial development, water demand increases dramatically. Nowadays, water shortage problem becomes the key issue in nation''s economical development projects. For sustainable development of water resources, carrying capacity of water environment has to be considered in regional development planing. It indicates that future water management has to be shifted from supply-side to demand-side. The main purpose of this study, is to explore carrying capacity of a water environmental from the view point of water resource. The methodology of the study could be divided into four main stages as follows: the definition of water resource carrying capacity, estimation the potential of surface, subsurface and baseflow, examination the content of environmental water uses, and calculation the reliability of water resource carrying capacity for the maximum population equivalent in the regional development. Chung-Kaung Chi basin is chosen as the study area. Potential surface water is evaluated based on flow duration curve (FDC), and mean annual flow is estimated by Chow''s formula. For those ungauged stations, dimensionless FDC can be used. At the outlet of the Chung-Kaung Chi basin, it is estimated that mean annual surface flow and coefficient of variation (COV) are 2.63and 0.1825 respectively. For baseflow estimation, concept adopted from Linsley (1982) and Tzou (1996) is used to carry on baseflow separation. It''s estimated that mean annual baseflow and COV at outlet of the basin are 0.34 and 0.3294 respectively. Both ground water hydrograph (GWH) and cumulative rainfall departure (CRD) methods are used to estimate annual recharge. It indicates that GWH method is better than CRD method in accuracy. Hence, GWH is used and it shows that mean annual ground water recharge and COV at the outlet of the basin are 1.58 and 0.3139 respectively. Also, the relationship between annual rainfall and recharge is established. Furthermore, recharge depth isopleths for the basin are constructed. Because environmental water use is still disputable, so have one to three times of fishery water use (Tennant,1975) instead.In the reliability analysis of water resource carrying capacity, all water resources (surface, subsurface, and baseflow) are treated as normal and lognormal distribution. From the results, they show that reliability of water resource carrying capacity for the optimum land-used allocation (with water demand = 17,763,236) reaches 100%. If different degree of water resources development and environmental water use are considered, reliability reduces obviously and optimum land-used will be changed.