Application and Study of Grey Forcasting on Optimal Industrial Structure

• Main Authors: Yan, Sy-Woie, 顏思偉
• Other Authors: Shih Neng-Jen
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 1997
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/33921377497104231180

碩士 === 國立彰化師範大學 === 商業教育學系 === 85 === ABSTRACT Input-Output table is indicated all the Input-Output relation among industries during a time in a country .Because the Input-Output coefficients full grey condition during the processing of long term predicting. In this paper , we developed a dynamic grey modle based on the series of consume and population with associated the I/O coefficients by logistic regression from 1964 to 1991 that determined the optimal GNP. Furthermore, the optimal 29 industries structure in Taiwan of 2000 A.D. will be determined by the grey programming among the different policies. In addition , predict the final demand, intermediate demand , import , export of1996 and 2000 by Grey forcasting , and combinate the resualt and I/O efficient of two terms.Then use Chenery Model to devide output changes into four effects:Demand change effect, Export change effect, Import substitute effect and Technology change effect.We can compute the contribution to the output changes of 29 industries by the four effects. From the resualt of the study ,we suggest that goverment should choose lower consume growth policy and medium population growth policy. Keywords： grey forcasting、grey programming、Input-Output table