台灣地區造紙業之產業經濟、能源消費與二氧化碳減量潛力分析

• Main Author: 王丹平
• Other Authors: 林素貞
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 1997
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/58034966042500525319

碩士 === 國立成功大學 === 環境工程與科學系 === 85 === 　　Linkage effect analysis and factor analysis are used to analyze the correlation between energy consumption and air pollution for Taiwan's paper industry. Fuzzy goal programming imitates the potential CO2 reduction and appraise its difficult position. It is hoped that this study will aid in future development energy to enhance efficiency of energy use and improve air pollution of its products. 　　The major findings of this study are summarized as follows: 　　1.For the linkage effect, the sensibilities of dispersion and powers of dispersion of the paper industry are both greater than one. Moreover, the total linkage effect is always within the top 7 for all industries. This means that the paper industry plays a very important role in Taiwan's economic development in supporting other industries. 　　2.From analysis of the energy multiplier, the paper industry is categorized as one of high-energy consumption. From 1986 to 1994 the total energy multiplier has gradually increased. 　　3.The pollution multipliers of the paper industry from 1986 to 1994, except for the SO2 multipliers have all declined, whereas the CO2, Nox and TSP multipliers have increased. All multipliers are ranked in the top ten and these above pollutants are major generated from the paper industry. The means that the paper industry is among one of the high pollution industries in Taiwan. 　　4.Results of factor analysis show that emissions of CO2, SO2, Nox and TSP have all increased due to economic growth. During 1986-1994, the main factors affecting emission are energy intensity and the industry structure ratio. However, the pollution coefficient has not dominated. It creates additional SO2 emission and its effect on CO2 emission is lower than that of other factors. Since 1984, the pollution coefficient was found to be the most important factor for the increasd of TSP and Nox emissions. 　　5.In this study fuzzy goal programming uses energy price rising and taxing to simulate the results of CO2 reduction. Results of all scenarios by 2000 and the EC carbon/energy tax system have exceeded the current energy saving technology of the paper industry. Regarding the projected results for 2005, 2010 and 2020, the Swedish tax system is more effective in CO2 reduction and energy saving. If we are conisdering CO2 intensity and reduction cost, the Finnish tax system is the best choice; however, the CO2 emission will still exceed the level of 1990.