| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立成功大學 === 水利及海洋工程學系 === 84 === The main purpose of constructing levee will keep the people
livingnear river from flood. In most of engineering design, we
often face thesituation of information and data insufficiency,
and the problems of therandom characteristics of variables and
so on. Risk, however, is unavoidablebecause most of the planning
and decision would be done under such circumstance of uncertain
conditions. The methods of calculating risk usually include
the follows : method of return period; method of direct
integration; mean-value first-ordersecond-moment method (MFOSM);
advanced first-order second-moment method(AFOSM); Monte Carlo
simulation (MCS); Latin Hypercube simulation (LHS)and so on. The
main method in this paper is first-order second-moment method.
We will consider the characteristics of uncertainty of
variablesand try to establish the risk model of levee overflow,
and will also compare the results with MFOSM and AFOSM, and
verify the results usingMCS and LHS. The main point in this
paper is to understand the methods of risk analysis and realize
how to describe the uncertainty of variables. Wewill consider
the effect of the uncertainty factors in the process
ofcalculating risk, and try to understand and compare the
following conditions : (1) the change of the risk value after
the improvementplanning, (2) the effect of uncertainty of
variables for calculating failure risk, (3) the effect using
different displaying methods, (4)comparison the advantage and
disadvantage between MCS and LHS, and (5)try to establish the
relation between risk and central safety factor,and it would be
provided for design and cost-benefit analysis.
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