Exchange Rates Uncertainty and International Trade in Taiwan─ An Empirical Study

• Main Authors: Hsiao-Yu Chen, 陳曉彧
• Other Authors: Chao-Nan Chia
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 1995
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/45844970584438289705

碩士 === 淡江大學 === 金融研究所 === 83 === The purpose of this thesis is to examine whether the increasing volatility of the exchange rates between the NT dollar and the US dollar brought about adverse effects on Taiwan''s international trade with her four major and second trade partners,namely,the United States,Japan,Germany,and the United Kingdom.An empirical model which incorporates terms expressing the expected as well as the unexpected component of risks associated with exchange rate uncertainties is used for the study.The period from the first quarter of 1979 to the fourth quarter of 1993 is examined. Important findings are as follows: The expected component of the exchange rate risk did not generate any adverse effects to the bilateral trade with all four trade partners. However, the unexpected part had adversely affected some of the bilateral trade.These findings suggest that the establishment of risk hedging facilities might be important for continuing our prosperity in international trade in the future.