A study of the intelligent control theory for the debris flow warning system

• Main Authors: Li, Xin Ping, 李心平
• Other Authors: Zhang, Fei Zhang
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 1995
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/74258236272998594999

碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 農業工程研究所 === 83 === The major control factors of the debris flow are rainfall , pile , slope and watershed area . In present study , the fuzzy theory advanced by Zadeh has been used for solving the fuzziness of each factor . The fuzzy control system based on fuzzy theory is an artificial intrllgence system which simula- tes the logic process of human . The membership function is applied to take the place of the sharp boundary that is usually emploied in traditional set , and it makes the desc- ription more reality. Since hourly rainfall , the main elements of debris flow, varies tremendously in time and space , the traditional method , such as ARMA model , can''t fit it effectively . The artifical neural network （ANN） is capable of self- organization and self - learning through modifying the biological neural networks , and it can make a good desc- ription to an non-linear system . A back-propagation of ANN and GMDH （ group method of data handling ） have been applied for investigating the hourly rainfall intensity with different typhoon event in Hua-Lien area . At last , the method that combines of rainfall forecasting and fuzzy control theory to forecast the degree of debris flow is simulated . The results show that the method can make an excellent judgement of the trend of debris flow.