The Causality-Testing between Local Finance and Local Development－the Empirical Analysis in Taiwan Province

• Main Authors: bi-yau Shr, 施碧瑤
• Other Authors: Tong-Po Ho
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 1994
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/07062314517542460629

碩士 === 國立成功大學 === 都市計劃研究所 === 82 === According to Taiwan''s Finance Act , local governments have insufficient sources for financing their normal expenditures. It will result in unhealthy local development .Furthmore ,it will lead to insufficient sources become more serious . This kind of reciprocation is not good for local development .The purpose of this study is to examine the relationships between local development and local finance. The empirical analysis of this research proceeds an hypothesis test .The study area is composed of 21 cities and counties of Taiwan Province . The observation periods ranges from 1982 to 1991 .By using factor analysis ,both local development and local finance are represented by an weighted-average variable respectively .The relationship between local development and local finance include three folds,they are simple causality relationship ,concurrent causality relationship, and time lag relation . The hypothesis tests is based on the proposition that a cause can only occur before an effect ,but can''t occur after it .The conclusions of the empirical study are as follows .(1) At the 1 ％ significant level ,local finance and local development exists two-way simple causality correlation.On the one hand , affects local development with weak concurrent causality and two-year lag causality effects . (2) At the 5 ％ significant level , local finance and local development exists two-way simple causality correlation the same as above . On the one hand , local finance affects local development with weak concurrent causality,and both one-year and two-year lag causality effects.On the other hand,local development affects local finance with weak concurrent causality and one-year lag causality effects .